Change of Mind on Global Economic Growth

Markets Update Confidence in the strength of the global economy evaporated suddenly in October 2018, leading to sharp declines in equity and commodity prices, widening interest rate spreads, and an appreciation of the U.S. dollar. Little in the underlying fundamentals of the U.S. economy had changed: GDP enjoyed solid gains of 4.2% and 3.4% in […]

Global Macroeconomic Environment: Is the Glass Half Full or Half Empty?

Investors’ appetite for risk, while elevated for much of 2018, evaporated as the year drew to a close and wiped out positive returns for the year across broad asset classes (T-bills being a notable exception). Concerns over tighter monetary policy and the global withdrawal of stimulus measures, unresolved trade disputes, falling oil prices, slower global […]

Everything Is Great! Right?

View PDF September 20 marked the capstone of a summer run-up in the U.S. equity market. We saw a true market correction in February (S&P 500 Index down 10.1%) and a drawdown of more than 7% in March, but the memory of those experiences was obliterated by a smooth, steady climb, with the S&P 500 […]

Is This It for the Current Economic Expansion?

Real GDP growth in the U.S. hit 4.1% in the second quarter of 2018, the strongest quarterly gain since 2014. Many indicators corroborate the story of a thriving American economy: low unemployment, robust consumer spending, elevated business and consumer confidence, and growth in non-residential investment. However, a big contributor to growth was a surge in […]

Summer Doldrums for the Economy?

Summer months are typically a quiet time for the markets. Recent events, however, may disrupt this tradition. Threats of escalating trade wars have cast a pall over equities, and numerous geopolitical uncertainties continue to push investors toward a more cautious stance. A desynchronization in global growth as well as a divergence in central banks’ monetary […]

Sentiment Restored. Is It Time to Worry?

View Market Review The U.S. economy closed out 2017 with decent momentum, recording a solid 2.6% gain in GDP in the fourth quarter after growth above 3% in each of the prior two quarters. Investor sentiment felt disconnected as the year unfolded; the underlying global economy appeared to be steadily improving and capital markets reported […]

Why So Sad?

The disconnect sharpened in the third quarter between the state of the underlying economy (pretty good) and sentiment (not so good)