The Fed Speaks: ‘A Mid-Cycle Adjustment to Policy’
The U.S. economy continued its now-record expansion in the second quarter with a 2.1% gain in GDP, slower than the robust 3.1% in the first quarter but well ahead of expectations. Consumer spending rose 4.3% in the quarter, supported by solid gains in the job market and disposable income growth of 5% in each of […]
What Just Happened?
The full return of the economy depends on the confidence that we are safe to resume jobs, travel, consumption, and daily interaction. Until then, the global economy will be hampered in ways we can only partly anticipate; the unmeasurable risk of the global health crisis will dominate for some time
Assessing the Impact of the Coronavirus for Institutional Investors
The fast-moving coronavirus outbreak and the even faster-moving equity market response to the uncertainty present a significant downside risk to the global economic outlook. Callan does not have anything to say about the epidemic itself, and a lot of great research has already come out from the asset management community. What we can offer is […]
The Most Anticipated Recession in History Fails to Materialize
View PDF Real GDP grew at 2.1% for the fourth quarter of 2019, capping off a year pretty much no one anticipated for growth or the capital markets. GDP growth for the year came in at 2.3%, unemployment fell to yet another generational low, wages and incomes continued to show robust gains, and yet inflation […]
2019—A Surprisingly Lofty End to the Decade
From my post a year ago: “As widely expected … the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted unanimously to increase its federal funds rate target by 25 bps, bringing it to 2.25%–2.50%. … the year-end read of fed funds futures prices indicated a nearly 90% probability of no Fed hikes in 2019. … the FOMC also reduced […]
Global Headwinds Cloud Outlook for U.S.
The U.S. economy continued to perform reasonably well in the third quarter, with several September data points surpassing expectations. That said, global growth continued to languish, especially in manufacturing where trade wars have taken a toll. Inflation also remained stubbornly low. Against that backdrop, the U.S. dollar was a star performer, up 3.4% versus a […]
Must All Good Things Come to an End?
As the U.S. enters its 121st month of expansion, and valuations are lofty in most markets, the timing of a recession remain forefront on investors’ minds
Resilience in the Face of Uncertainty
View PDF Investor confidence has shifted wildly over the past six months. Anxiety, panic, and gloom pushed equity markets down around the globe through the last three months of 2018, culminating in one of the worst Decembers in decades. The pessimism derailed global interest rate policy. The central banks in the euro zone had yet […]
What Correction?
With the S&P 500 suffering its worst December since 1931, and the equity market falling by nearly 20% at one point during the month, suffice it to say that 2018 ended with a thud rather than a bang. However, just as we saw a snap-back from the drawdown in early 2018 (for different reasons), the […]
How We Developed Our 2019-2028 Capital Market Projections
View PDF Callan develops long-term capital market projections at the start of each year, detailing our expectations for return, volatility, and correlation for broad asset classes. These projections represent our best thinking regarding a longer-term outlook and are critical for strategic planning as our investor clients set investment expectations over five-year, ten-year, and longer time […]