How the Fed’s COVID-19 Programs Affected Markets and Investors
Since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in March, financial markets have experienced levels of disruption not seen since the Global Financial Crisis of 2008. After bid-ask spreads widened dramatically in March across a broad array of fixed income sectors—including off-the-run U.S. Treasuries!—a series of Federal Reserve programs has restored investor confidence and liquidity, and […]
Fixed Income Market Offers Many Options for ESG Investors
More investment managers are applying ESG analysis to bonds, and many have developed customized ESG frameworks to specifically evaluate various segments of the global credit market
Why Bankruptcies by States Are Unlikely
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell’s comments that he would favor allowing states to declare bankruptcy rather than receive aid from the federal government led to questions about the impact on state finances and the municipal bond market. Based on input from managers, this is an unlikely scenario. Here’s a brief summary of the important points […]
U.S. Treasuries the Lone Safe Haven in a Rocky First Quarter
U.S. fixed income U.S. Treasury yields fell to record lows in March as investors sought safety and the Fed cut rates to 0%-0.25%. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield reached a low in March of 0.31% before closing the quarter at 0.70%, down sharply from the year-end level of 1.92%. Other sectors significantly underperformed U.S. Treasuries, […]
The Credit Cycle Has Turned
Our Alternatives Consulting group analyzes credit-related hedge funds and how they are managing in the current market environment
Staying Calm Amid Turbulent Markets
Market volatility spiked in the latter half of February and has remained elevated, driven by the spread of the coronavirus outside of China.
Behind Our 2020-2029 Capital Market Assumptions
Callan develops long-term capital market assumptions at the start of each year, detailing our expectations for return, volatility, and correlation for broad asset classes. These projections represent our best thinking regarding a longer-term outlook and are critical for strategic planning as our investor clients set investment expectations over five-year, ten-year, and longer time horizons. Our […]
Impact of the Coronavirus on Markets: The Long-Term View
Markets continue to be roiled by the worsening news of the coronavirus outbreak around the world. The steep decline of the past week occurred more than a month after news of the virus first surfaced, as investors initially priced-in virus containment to China. But new reports of the virus spreading to 48 countries dimmed hopes […]
Strong Quarter Caps an Even Stronger Year
2019 was a remarkable year for the financial markets; here I break down results for the major asset classes: Equity Markets The S&P 500 Index rose 9.1% in the fourth quarter, bringing its year-to-date result to a whopping 31.5%, the best calendar year return since 2013 and capping a decade of strong performance. Small cap […]
2019—A Surprisingly Lofty End to the Decade
From my post a year ago: “As widely expected … the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted unanimously to increase its federal funds rate target by 25 bps, bringing it to 2.25%–2.50%. … the year-end read of fed funds futures prices indicated a nearly 90% probability of no Fed hikes in 2019. … the FOMC also reduced […]