Must All Good Things Come to an End?

As the U.S. enters its 121st month of expansion, and valuations are lofty in most markets, the timing of a recession remain forefront on investors’ minds

Resilience in the Face of Uncertainty

View PDF Investor confidence has shifted wildly over the past six months. Anxiety, panic, and gloom pushed equity markets down around the globe through the last three months of 2018, culminating in one of the worst Decembers in decades. The pessimism derailed global interest rate policy. The central banks in the euro zone had yet […]

Everything Is Great! Right?

View PDF September 20 marked the capstone of a summer run-up in the U.S. equity market. We saw a true market correction in February (S&P 500 Index down 10.1%) and a drawdown of more than 7% in March, but the memory of those experiences was obliterated by a smooth, steady climb, with the S&P 500 […]

What a Difference a Decade Makes!

Happy 10-year anniversary to the Global Financial Crisis! Just a decade ago, some of the world’s largest and most revered financial institutions, along with the modern financial system itself, were left staring into the abyss. And yet, as grave as things appeared in September 2008 and during the months that followed, the global economy just 10 years later finds itself in the midst of one of the longest economic expansions in the modern era.

Is This It for the Current Economic Expansion?

Real GDP growth in the U.S. hit 4.1% in the second quarter of 2018, the strongest quarterly gain since 2014. Many indicators corroborate the story of a thriving American economy: low unemployment, robust consumer spending, elevated business and consumer confidence, and growth in non-residential investment. However, a big contributor to growth was a surge in […]

Summer Doldrums for the Economy?

Summer months are typically a quiet time for the markets. Recent events, however, may disrupt this tradition. Threats of escalating trade wars have cast a pall over equities, and numerous geopolitical uncertainties continue to push investors toward a more cautious stance. A desynchronization in global growth as well as a divergence in central banks’ monetary […]

Slow Burn

View PDF After a weak first quarter, the U.S. economy closed out 2017 with decent momentum, as GDP grew at a robust 3% annualized rate for the remaining three quarters. The first quarter of 2018 will likely be remembered for its sudden, brief correction and the return of volatility. True to form, however, the U.S. […]

Sentiment Restored. Is It Time to Worry?

View Market Review The U.S. economy closed out 2017 with decent momentum, recording a solid 2.6% gain in GDP in the fourth quarter after growth above 3% in each of the prior two quarters. Investor sentiment felt disconnected as the year unfolded; the underlying global economy appeared to be steadily improving and capital markets reported […]

Analyzing the Impact of the New Tax Law

The federal tax law overhaul signed by President Trump at the end of last year, totaling more than 800 pages, marked the first comprehensive change to the U.S. corporate and personal tax systems since 1986. In broad strokes, the biggest changes include: Permanently reducing the corporate tax rate from 35 to 21 percent Temporarily reducing […]