Is 2% Growth Good or Bad?
Jay Kloepfer examines GDP growth in 3Q21 and its implications for the future course of the recovery.
… And We’re Back! The Rebound of the U.S. Economy
Jay Kloepfer assesses the current state of the U.S. economy.
A JOLT of Inflation from the Labor Market?
The Capital Markets Research group discusses recent changes to the labor market and what impact they may have on inflation.
The U.S. Economy, Now Open for Business
The U.S. economy may be on track for a truly eye-opening expansion, with initial projections pointing to growth rates of 9% or even higher for 2Q.
2021—Starting Off with Gusto!
How the economy did in 1Q21, and the outlook ahead.
An Uneven Recovery and an Unreliable Narrator
The path to recovery in the U.S. and most developed economies will likely see the level of GDP regain its pre-pandemic peak in mid-2021.
The Stock Market Is Not the Economy
The word “unprecedented” to describe the current environment may seem overused, but the speed and depth of the economic disruption was indeed unprecedented.
The Fed Speaks: ‘A Mid-Cycle Adjustment to Policy’
The U.S. economy continued its now-record expansion in the second quarter with a 2.1% gain in GDP, slower than the robust 3.1% in the first quarter but well ahead of expectations. Consumer spending rose 4.3% in the quarter, supported by solid gains in the job market and disposable income growth of 5% in each of […]
This Time May Really Be Different
View CMR Third quarter U.S. GDP growth surprised on the upside, coming in at 1.9% and extending what is now the longest economic expansion on record to 124 months. While 1.9% sounds modest compared to past cycles, it is positively robust compared to developed economies around the globe. The U.S. economy, and to an extent […]
Global Headwinds Cloud Outlook for U.S.
The U.S. economy continued to perform reasonably well in the third quarter, with several September data points surpassing expectations. That said, global growth continued to languish, especially in manufacturing where trade wars have taken a toll. Inflation also remained stubbornly low. Against that backdrop, the U.S. dollar was a star performer, up 3.4% versus a […]