Sentiment Restored. Is It Time to Worry?

View Market Review The U.S. economy closed out 2017 with decent momentum, recording a solid 2.6% gain in GDP in the fourth quarter after growth above 3% in each of the prior two quarters. Investor sentiment felt disconnected as the year unfolded; the underlying global economy appeared to be steadily improving and capital markets reported […]

Why Is Inflation So Low?

View PDF We are now eight years into the economic recovery in the U.S., arguably the latter stages of a mature expansion and at a point where inflationary pressures typically begin to build. Yet price and wage inflation remain stubbornly subdued. Headline and particularly core inflation have drifted down over the past several months. Headline […]

Over-Inflated? PCE vs. CPI

Because of its extraordinary response to the Global Financial Crisis, investors scrutinize the actions of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) more than ever. Since 2000, the Fed’s preferred measure to set its 2% target rate for inflation has been the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index. Despite these developments, the consumer price index (CPI) remains […]