Is 2% Growth Good or Bad?

Jay Kloepfer examines GDP growth in 3Q21 and its implications for the future course of the recovery.

Will Headwinds or Tailwinds Prevail?

Kristin Bradbury analyzes the macroeconomic environment in 3Q21 and the year to date.

Wall Street Bets on Transitory Bumps in Inflation

Kristin Bradbury analyzes how the U.S. and global economies and global markets performed in 2Q21, and assesses the outlook coming out of the pandemic.

A JOLT of Inflation from the Labor Market?

The Capital Markets Research group discusses recent changes to the labor market and what impact they may have on inflation.

Tips on TIPS

Kristin Bradbury explains TIPS and their potential role in investment portfolios.

The Fed Speaks: ‘A Mid-Cycle Adjustment to Policy’

The U.S. economy continued its now-record expansion in the second quarter with a 2.1% gain in GDP, slower than the robust 3.1% in the first quarter but well ahead of expectations. Consumer spending rose 4.3% in the quarter, supported by solid gains in the job market and disposable income growth of 5% in each of […]

Going for Gold: A Prescient Move or a Fool’s Errand?

Read Jim’s Paper Few investments elicit as visceral a response from investors as gold. As perhaps gold’s most notable skeptic, Warren Buffett observes that gold “doesn’t do anything but sit there and look at you.” Stocks are more productive assets, he maintains. Fearful of high stock prices or runaway inflation, advocates view gold as a […]

The Outlook From Fixed Income Managers

View the Outlook Callan conducts a quarterly survey of select fixed income managers to gauge their sentiments about the current market environment and solicit their near-term outlook (6-9 months) on key issues such as Federal Reserve rate hikes, inflation, and other factors that affect bond portfolios. In our most recent survey, for the first quarter […]

Is This It for the Current Economic Expansion?

Real GDP growth in the U.S. hit 4.1% in the second quarter of 2018, the strongest quarterly gain since 2014. Many indicators corroborate the story of a thriving American economy: low unemployment, robust consumer spending, elevated business and consumer confidence, and growth in non-residential investment. However, a big contributor to growth was a surge in […]

Summer Doldrums for the Economy?

Summer months are typically a quiet time for the markets. Recent events, however, may disrupt this tradition. Threats of escalating trade wars have cast a pall over equities, and numerous geopolitical uncertainties continue to push investors toward a more cautious stance. A desynchronization in global growth as well as a divergence in central banks’ monetary […]