Global Macroeconomic Environment: Is the Glass Half Full or Half Empty?

Investors’ appetite for risk, while elevated for much of 2018, evaporated as the year drew to a close and wiped out positive returns for the year across broad asset classes (T-bills being a notable exception). Concerns over tighter monetary policy and the global withdrawal of stimulus measures, unresolved trade disputes, falling oil prices, slower global […]

What a Difference a Decade Makes!

Happy 10-year anniversary to the Global Financial Crisis! Just a decade ago, some of the world’s largest and most revered financial institutions, along with the modern financial system itself, were left staring into the abyss. And yet, as grave as things appeared in September 2008 and during the months that followed, the global economy just 10 years later finds itself in the midst of one of the longest economic expansions in the modern era.

Is This It for the Current Economic Expansion?

Real GDP growth in the U.S. hit 4.1% in the second quarter of 2018, the strongest quarterly gain since 2014. Many indicators corroborate the story of a thriving American economy: low unemployment, robust consumer spending, elevated business and consumer confidence, and growth in non-residential investment. However, a big contributor to growth was a surge in […]

Sentiment Restored. Is It Time to Worry?

View Market Review The U.S. economy closed out 2017 with decent momentum, recording a solid 2.6% gain in GDP in the fourth quarter after growth above 3% in each of the prior two quarters. Investor sentiment felt disconnected as the year unfolded; the underlying global economy appeared to be steadily improving and capital markets reported […]

Why So Sad?

The disconnect sharpened in the third quarter between the state of the underlying economy (pretty good) and sentiment (not so good)

Why Is Inflation So Low?

View PDF We are now eight years into the economic recovery in the U.S., arguably the latter stages of a mature expansion and at a point where inflationary pressures typically begin to build. Yet price and wage inflation remain stubbornly subdued. Headline and particularly core inflation have drifted down over the past several months. Headline […]

First Quarter GDP: Hitch in Our Git-Along?

1st Qtr Analysis 1st Qtr Data For the fourth year in a row, reported GDP growth disappointed in the first quarter, coming in at just 0.7%, down from a 2.1% rate in the fourth quarter and the weakest rate in three years. This paltry gain for the U.S. economy was concentrated in consumer spending on […]

Sanguine Sentiment Fuels Risk-on Rally in Q1 2017

The risk-on theme persisted through the first quarter as improving economic data trumped elevated geopolitical uncertainty, both in the U.S. and abroad. Economies in the U.S. and Europe continued to gain traction and the U.S. entered its 93rd month of expansion. In a widely expected move, the Fed raised rates in March by 25 bps, […]